Future Minerals Scenarios for the UK

Need - Adequate and resilient supplies of minerals are essential to support the growth and success of the UK economy and therefore the well-being of its population. Resources - Geology is fundamental to which minerals may be produced domestically. The UK is fortunate in being relatively well endowed with mineral resources, and their extraction and use have played an important role in the historic development of the economy. The UK continues to have an economically important minerals industry, with oil, gas, and construction the dominant sectors by tonnage and value. Although UK coal production is much diminished, coal still makes a vital contribution to our current energy mix. A number of industrial minerals support downstream industries and some important export markets. In addition, the UK’s mineral potential still attracts interest - a major new tungsten mine in Devon will start production in 2015. However, the UK is not self-sufficient in a number of key sectors, particularly metals and, increasingly, energy - oil, gas and coal. The future potential to access unconventional energy resources, notably shale gas, is as yet unknown and requires significant further investigation. History - Major changes in the fortunes of each of the UK’s extractive sectors have occurred in the last four decades. Overall the trend has been one of decline, annual volumes of minerals production and consumption being roughly 200 Mt lower (by about 35%) in 2011 than in 1970, although this decline partly reflects the recent recession. A decoupling of economic growth with apparent minerals consumption suggests greater resource efficiency but this may mask under-investment in infrastructure and the move of manufacturing overseas. Nevertheless minerals remain the largest material flow in the economy with some 290 million tonnes produced in 2012, of which 193 million tonnes was from onshore. Drivers of change - Future demand and supply of the products of the UK minerals industry will be affected by a number of external factors. Major drivers of change include: • growth in the economy; • the security and cost of energy supplies; • future investment in construction and infrastructure; • evolving technology; • the balance between the benefits of minerals extraction and the associated impacts on the environment and society; and • the political (and regulatory) framework within which the minerals industry operates. With rapidly declining domestic reserves of oil and gas, ensuring energy supplies at a cost acceptable to consumers as well as the environment is crucial. Despite the prospects of large shale gas resources, commercial evaluation in the UK is still in its infancy and commercial viability as yet unknown. Future population and household growth will require large-scale investment in more housing and new and improved infrastructure, including energy. These in turn will drive demand for construction materials (aggregates, cement, ready-mix concrete, asphalt, bricks, tiles, glass and plaster products), all of which are currently UK-sourced. Some, like cement, lime, bricks and glass manufacture are also energy-intensive. Delivery - It remains to be seen whether regulatory systems and high energy costs frustrate the delivery of the essential raw materials needed by the UK economy over the next 35 years. Balancing such factors with the UK’s carbon reduction targets for 2050 is also challenging. Conclusion - Future minerals supply, whether through imports or domestic production, cannot be taken for granted. Access to long-term supplies of minerals is of crucial importance if the UK is to achieve sustainable growth, a balanced economy, security of energy supply, renewal of infrastructure and increased climate change resilience. This cannot be left entirely to private industry or global markets. It is the responsibility of Government to establish an appropriate policy, regulatory and fiscal framework to encourage sustainable production that balances economic, social and environmental priorities. Given the crucial importance of minerals, and minerals-based products, to the economy and society, the Future Minerals Scenarios Working Group recommends that the minerals industry should work alongside policymakers and other interested stakeholders to develop a UK Minerals Strategy within the UK’s wider industrial strategy. With good will and determined effort it is surely possible to conserve what is essential in our landscapes, habitats and cultural heritage while meeting UK demand for minerals over the next 35 years to 2050

Trends in UK production of minerals : UK Minerals Forum Working Group 2013-14 : future mineral scenarios for the UK

Adequate and steady supplies of minerals are essential for the nation’s economic and social development. For its small size Britain is relatively well endowed with mineral resources, and their extraction and use have played an important role in the historic development of the UK economy. The UK continues to have an economically significant minerals industry, with oil and gas, and construction minerals being the dominant sectors in terms of tonnage and value. Although UK coal production is much diminished, coal still makes a significant contribution to our energy mix. A number of industrial minerals support downstream industries and some, important export markets. As in the past, future demand for, and thus production and import of, minerals is continually evolving. It will continue to be strongly influenced by a range of economic, political, technical, social and environmental factors. This report takes a backward look at Britain’s mineral production. The last three decades or so have witnessed major changes in the fortunes of each of Britain’s extractive sectors – oil and gas, coal, construction and industrial minerals, and metals. Whilst the future cannot be simply extrapolated from the past, it is useful to record and analyse some of these trends to see if they identify any drivers for the future. This report presents trends in the production of a wide range of minerals, including for the fossil fuels – coal, natural gas and oil; construction minerals – aggregates, brick clay, cement-making raw materials and gypsum; and a number of industrial minerals – kaolin, ball clay, silica sand, potash, industrial carbonates, fluorspar and barytes. There have been substantial changes in the UK minerals industry over the last 30+ years. Overall the trend has been one of decline, both in terms of minerals production and consumption. The UK is also becoming increasingly dependent on imports of minerals and minerals-based products. This not only places increasing demands on the environments of our trading partners but potentially makes us more vulnerable to supply disruptions through growing global demand for minerals driven by expanding populations and rising incomes and, in some regions, geopolitical instability. This means that there will be a continuing demand for the products of the UK’s extractive industries for the foreseeable future. The extent to which domestic supply is able to meet that demand will ultimately depend on the wide range of relevant policies, both fiscal and regulatory, adopted by future governments, and also the political and environmental acceptability of continued minerals extraction. Britain’s resource security and its longer term access to mineral supplies, both from domestic and overseas sources, will remain a key issue for the economy and politicians for many years to come

The future of our minerals

An adequate and resilient supply of minerals is essential to the growth of the UK economy and the well-being of the population in terms of security of energy supply, renewal of infrastructure and increased climate change resilience. While we have had the luxury of being able to take availability of minerals for granted in the past, future supplies are by no means guaranteed and this report highlights a number of issues that need to be considered. They include global competition for raw materials and investment concerns within the industry arising from uncertainty about the future relationship of the UK with the EU. The future of our energy minerals is a particularly pressing issue, with a current question mark over the potential of unconventional energy resources. Long-term continued access to minerals is considered crucial if the UK is to achieve sustainable economic growth and rebalance its economy towards production and manufacturing. Positive action must now be taken by Government as well as by statutory regulators, NGOs and the industry to ensure continuity. We believe there is a need for a policy, regulatory and fiscal framework that encourages sustainable production while balancing economic, social and environmental priorities. With goodwill and determined effort, it is surely possible to conserve what is essential in our landscapes, habitats and cultural heritage while meeting UK demand for minerals over the 35 years to 2050

Examining the influence of settlement morphology and separation zones policies on the availability of shallow coal resources in the United Kingdom

In 2013, demand for coal in the UK was 60 million tonnes. Of this, 12.7 million tonnes (21%) came from indigenous sources; the majority of which was from surface mining (8.6 million tonnes). Many planning applications for surface mining of coal and the coal extraction that follows, are often a source of conflict with the communities who live within shallow coalfield areas. Policies which enforce a gap, or ‘separation zone’, between communities and surface coal mining operations exist in Wales and Scotland, but do not exist in England. This paper examines the effect of applying separation zones on the availability of shallow coal resources within two study areas; one within the South Wales Coalfield, the other within the Midlands Coalfield (comprising the Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and North Derbyshire Coalfield areas). Density profiles and a shape-index algorithm are used to compare and contrast settlement morphology (i.e. shape or footprint) and distribution to determine whether they have a bearing on the areal extent of any potential separation zone applied. The implications on the availability of shallow coal resources of applying different separation zone distances around settlements within these two areas are explored. Results reveal that although the settlement morphology is important in determining the area of the separation zone, and has greatest influence in the South Wales Coalfield, the area of coal resource sterilised by the application of separation zones is greatest in the Midlands Coalfield due to it having a higher proportion of urban development situated on the surface extent of the shallow coal resource

The role of earth and environmental science in addressing sustainable development priorities in Eastern Africa

Here we synthesise the results of three participatory workshops to explore sustainable development priorities in eastern Africa, and discuss these in the context of Earth and environmental science. The planet is a core pillar of sustainable development, and the engagement of Earth and environmental scientists is vital to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In 2017, the British Geological Survey gathered 76 delegates from 48 organisations at three workshops in Nairobi (Kenya), Lusaka (Zambia), and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). Using the SDGs as a reference tool, participants (i) identified development priorities at regional (eastern Africa) and national scales, (ii) explored the Earth and environmental science research and data needs to help address these, and (iii) co-designed relevant science-for-development projects. Participants identified sustainable development priorities to be basic (or immediate) needs, including zero hunger (SDG 2), education (SDG 4), ending poverty (SDG 1), and water and sanitation (SDG 6). Participants also described examples of Earth and environmental science research, training, technologies, monitoring and management to support sustainable development. Emerging themes included environmental data (collection, management, integration, access), policy and regulations (integrating environmental science, and policy coherence), resource management (degradation, pollution and environmental protection), and scientific education and understanding (training, knowledge exchange, public understanding of science). A comparative synthesis of existing regional and national development strategies indicates that current narratives of development interventions do not fully capture the opportunities from environmental data integration and policy coherence. Greater engagement with and by the Earth and environmental science community could help to advance these themes to support sustainable development in eastern Africa. This would support efforts to reduce environmental degradation, improve natural resource management, and inform the utilisation of natural resources to improve economic growth and social wellbeing

A new sand and gravel map for the UK Continental Shelf to support sustainable planning

The planning framework for the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) is undergoing significant change. An integrated plan-led process, similar to that undertaken onshore, is now being applied offshore. It is vital that marine mineral resources are adequately considered in this process. In order to facilitate this, the first ever sand and gravel mineral resources map of the entire UKCS has been created. Offshore resources have been defined by integrating geological mapping data and the British Geological Survey’s extensive collection of core, sea bed sample and geophysical records. A spatial model has been developed that highlights the location and likely composition of sand and gravel deposits with the results undergoing geological review to ensure different sea-bed features have been adequately represented. Results are presented as a series of four maps covering the entire UKCS. With increasing pressure on marine space it is important to balance the competing demands and needs from different use sectors. Identification of the distribution of sand and gravel resources at a national scale and presentation in a consistent fashion allows planners to adequately consider minerals in the planning process and permits more effective and sustainable sea-use management strategies to be developed

A case study for Hanoi, Vietnam : urbanisation and demand for construction materials

This describes the first phase of research for a minerals materials flow analysis For Hanoi. This consists assessing the feasibility of conducting material flow analysis (MFA) for Hanoi, with a particular focus on assessing the availability of required data. The availability of data on the production, trade, consumption, and demand for construction-related mineral commodities at a national, regional and city level within Vietnam was assessed. Although current levels of publically available data are insufficient to allow a full MFA analysis we present the results obtained from a preliminary analysis of material supply and demand in Hanoi. Supply and demand scenarios up to 2030 for several commodities important for the construction sector have been evaluated. Recommendations are also made for future application of MFA in Hanoi

Artisanal gold mining in Kakamega and Vihiga counties, Kenya: potential human exposure and health risk

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) represents 20% of gold supply and 90% of gold mining workforce globally, which operates in highly informal setups. Pollutants from mined ores and chemicals introduced during gold processing pose occupational and inadvertent health risks to the extent that has not been well elucidated in Africa. Trace and major elements were analysed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry in soil, sediment and water samples from 19 ASGM villages in Kakamega and Vihiga counties. Associated health risks for residents and ASGM workers were assessed. This paper focuses on As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni and Pb for which 96% of soil samples from mining and ore processing sites had As concentrations up to 7937 times higher than the US EPA 12 mg kg−1 standard for residential soils. Soil Cr, Hg and Ni concentrations in 98%, 49% and 68% of the samples exceeded respective USEPA and CCME standards, with 1–72% bioaccessibility. Twenty-five percentage of community drinking water sources were higher than the WHO 10 µg L−1 drinking water guideline. Pollution indices indicated significant enrichment and pollution of soils, sediment and water in decreasing order of As > Cr > Hg > Ni > Pb > Cd. The study revealed increased risks of non-cancer health effects (98.6) and cancer in adults (4.93 × 10−2) and children (1.75 × 10−1). The findings will help environment managers and public health authorities better understand the potential health risks in ASGM and support evidence-based interventions in ASGM processes, industrial hygiene and formulation of public health policy to protect residents and ASGM workers’ health in Kenya

International, multi-disciplinary, cross-section study of pain knowledge and attitudes in nursing, midwifery and allied health professions students.

Persistent pain is a highly prevalent, global cause of disability. Research suggests that many healthcare professionals are not well equipped to manage pain and that this may be attributable at least in part to undergraduate education. The primary aim of this study was to quantify and compare first and final year nursing, midwifery and allied health professional (NMAHP) students' pain-related knowledge and attitudes. The secondary aim was to explore the factors influencing students' pain-related knowledge and attitudes. This cross-sectional study included 1154 first and final year healthcare students, from 12 universities in five different countries. Participants completed the Revised Neurophysiology of Pain Quiz (RNPQ) knowledge and the Health Care Providers Pain and Impairment Relationship Scale (HC-PAIRS) attitudes. Physiotherapy was the only student group with statistically and clinically improved pain-related knowledge mean difference, 95% CI (3.4, 3.0 to 3.9, p=0.01) and attitudes (-17.2, -19.2 to 15.2, p=0.01) between first and final year. Pain education teaching varied considerably from course to course (0 to 40 hours), with greater levels of pain-related knowledge and attitudes associated with higher volumes of pain-specific teaching. There was little difference in pain knowledge and attitudes between all first and final year NMAHP students other than physiotherapy. This suggests that for most NMAHP disciplines, undergraduate teaching has little or no impact on students' understanding of pain. There is an urgent need to enhance pain education provision at the undergraduate level in NMAHPs

Mapping marine sand and gravel

Aggregates – sands and gravels – are essential for building and maintaining our houses and infrastructure, so we need to be sure we have a reliable supply. Tom Bide and Joseph Mankelow explain how geological mapping is taking us in the right direction